🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."